Welcome back to the Box Office Premiership, our high-stakes Summer-long series of competitive Box Office predicting. Summer is finally in full swing as we cross the 1/3 mark, with a wide buffet of films for us to largely get super-wrong this week! But before we can do that, we must first clean up the mess left over from Week 3. So, let’s see how those predictions shook out!
(If you want a refresher on how both scoring and the Box Office Premiership in general work, then follow this link to the inaugural post. Meanwhile, if you want to be reminded of each contestants’ individual predictions, then follow this link to Week 3!)
Week 3 Results
Hereditary: $13,037,336. As mentioned in this week’s Box Office Report, general audiences of self-professed “Horror Fans” don’t actually want to be scared or horrified and will react violently when confronted with such a film. Still, this was A24’s biggest opening ever by a large margin and Caleb Burnett only overshot by $137,664 (predicting $13.175 million), so he takes home 1 point. Even better, that result was nowhere near Gregory Mucci’s $72 million prediction, so I don’t have to watch Hereditary until it hits the safety of Home Media, and giving us all some easy snark fodder for the rest of the season! EVERYBODY WINS!
Ocean’s 8: $41.5 million. Biggest opening of the Ocean’s franchise so far and yet another “so close yet so far” victory for Caleb, whose prediction of $41.3 million was just $200,000 away from getting him a well-earned 2-pointer. At least the 1 point he gets still technically counts a 2 when combined with the Hereditary point?
Hotel Artemis: $3,151,118. Between this and Show Dogs, Global Road are really screwing up what should be guaranteed mid-tier moneymakers regardless of objective quality. We all wildly overshot this one, so Gregory “$72 million for Hereditary” Mucci wins 1 point this week with the lowest prediction of $7 million.
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?: $470,000. As further evidence of us all largely being VERY WRONG but in the very few instances where we are right we are VERY RIGHT, Kevin Ibbotson-Wight was almost dead-on with this and changing just one digit would have made him our first 3-pointer. All the same, well done for guessing $480,000 and winning 1 point!
Total: $58,158,454. It initially seemed like this would be current perpetual bridesmaid Dominic Hastings’ time to shine, with a total $1,007,546 over the actual weekend total. However, the law of averages (not to be confused with The Law of Averages) caused him to fall by pretty much exactly the same amount he was off on Won’t You Be My Neighbor? Instead, my (Callum Petch) total of $57,152,700 was $1,005,754 under the actual total, meaning I snatch the 1 point out of his hands. In my defence, I feel really bad about it.
So, what has all this chaos done to the standings so far? Let’s have a looksee!
Leaderboard (after Week 3 of 11)
1) Callum (5 points)
2) Caleb (4 points)
3) Gregory (3 points)
4) Kevin (2 points)
5=) Owen Hughes and Tony Black (1 point)
6) Dominic (0 points)
Stupid dog! You made me look bad! It’s Week 4! OOGA-BOOGA-BOOGA!
(All info is correct at time of going to press.)
Week 4
Superfly (5 Day Weekend)
Theatre count: 2,220 (Wide)
Studio: Sony/Columbia
Genre: Action Crime
Dir: Director X
Star: Trevor Jackson, Jason Mitchell, Michael Kenneth Williams
Rating: R
RT score: 53% (Rotten)
Synopsis: A successful drug dealer shaken by increased activity by both the police and rival gangs aggressively expands his operations in the hope that he can make enough money on a big deal to retire.
Other info: Remake of the 1972 Blaxploitation classic of the same name. The first of Director X’s feature films to receive a proper release in the United States – no financial information is available for Across the Line. He is a prolific and highly-respected music video director, though, having worked for over 2 decades on videos for Rihanna, Drake, Ludacris, Usher, and many others. The only comp I have was the not-Blaxploitation-but-marketed-as-such Proud Mary from January which was similarly non-existently marketed and opened to $9.9 million over 3 days. Remember, YOU ARE PREDICTING ALL 5 DAYS, NOT JUST FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
Callum: $13.3 million. Over a 3-day weekend, this makes less than nothing. Nobody asked for this, it only went into production back in January (really), and more attention was spent on selling the soundtrack (which is not very good) than the movie. Apparently it’s still ok, but I don’t see many people choosing to see this.
Caleb: $11 million. With five days and an enticing enough premise, it won’t be too shabby.
Gregory: $9.3 million. While Incredibles 2 and Tag will prove equally distracting for families and corporate white dudes everywhere, Superfly will have generated enough buzz between ardent fans of X’s work and those who relish in the Blaxploitation of its history to draw decent box-office numbers.
Kevin: $14.2 million. Why not? Let’s be optimistic about the appetite for some retro blacksploitation. 5 day weekend can’t hurt.
Dominic: $12 million. Could do well with the Blaxploitation tag etc.
Incredibles 2
Theatre count: 4,400+ (Wide)
Studio: Disney/Pixar
Genre: Superhero (ANIMATION IS NOT A GENRE which is the one ideological thing Brad Bird and I will agree upon)
Dir: Brad Bird
Star: Craig T. Nelson, Holly Hunter, Sarah Vowell, Huck Milner, Samuel L. Jackson (voices)
Rating: PG
RT score: 95% (Fresh)
Synopsis: Set almost immediately after the ending of the original, the Parr family find themselves strained when their attempts to continue superheroing are blocked by the Superhero Relocation Act. An activist group fighting for the relegalisation of supers like the Parrs pick Elastigirl to be the face of their campaign, leaving Mr. Incredible stuck at home trying to raise their children.
Other info: Sequel to the classic 2004 original ($70.4 million opening weekend) and director Brad Bird’s long-overdue return to animation. Brad Bird’s last three openings: Tomorrowland ($33 million in 2015), Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol ($12.7 million in 2011 but was a Limited and IMAX-focussed opening), Ratatouille ($47 million in 2007). The last three Pixar sequel openings: Cars 3 ($53.6 million in 2017), Finding Dory ($135 million in 2016), Monsters University ($82.4 million). Our last true Wide Release animated feature was Sherlock Gnomes in March ($10.6 million) and the next is not until exactly one month from now (Hotel Transylvania 3). This has been highly anticipated for years so scale your bets accordingly.
Callum: $150 million. So, whatever happens, this easily clears $100 mil. I think it has an extremely good shot at dethroning Finding Dory for Biggest Pixar Sequel Opening, and it has the added boosts of superhero movies being properly en vogue, the original being a widely-beloved modern classic, and it somehow having taken 6 months for our first proper big animated movie to come along this year. If I were Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, I’d be quaking in my boots.
Caleb: $153 million. Audiences have waited 14 years. They’re going to get out and see this one!
Gregory: $88.4 million. “Thank god it isn’t another Cars sequel” is one of the many thoughts I hope drive Pixar fans to see a follow-up to one of the studio’s best films. Its release comes at an especially lucrative time, given the superhero buzz that’s still lingering from Infinity War, which has loosened its grip on multiplexes well enough to let another hero grab the spotlight.
Kevin: $93 million. A hit but maybe not a huge one. Pixar doesn’t seem quite the behemoth it was and this has been a sequel a long time coming.
Dominic: $100 million. It’s bound to do well, right?
Tag
Theatre count: 3,300+ (Wide)
Studio: Warner Bros.
Genre: Comedy
Dir: Jeff Tomsic
Star: Jeremy Renner, Ed Helms, Jake Johnson, Jon Hamm, Hannibal Buress
Rating: R
RT score: 60% (Fresh)
Synopsis: Based on a true story, a group of childhood friends that have gathered together for one month a year over the past 30 years to play a hyper-competitive game of tag find themselves in a crisis when Jerry (Renner), who has never been tagged, decides to quit.
Other info: 2018 in straightforward R-rated comedy so far: Action Point ($2.3 million on June 1st), Super Troopers 2 ($15.1 million on April 20th), Blockers ($20.5 million), Game Night ($17 million on February 23rd). Ed Helms last comedy openings: Father Figures ($3.2 million in 2017), Vacation ($14.6 million in 2015), We’re the Millers ($26.4 million). For what it’s worth, Life of the Party, also a Warner Bros. New Line comedy, opened to $17.8 million two months back. Weirdly not a whole lot of overlap in audiences for this and the various other comedies coming down the pipe this season.
Callum: $16.1 million. Reviews only just now coming out (with even the positive ones carrying a “it’s just OK” seal) have me smelling a dud. But it’s a high concept with a surprisingly good trailer, so I think it might still bring in a somewhat healthy audience. Game Night had strong reviews but a garbage trailer, after all!
Caleb: $12.75 million. This looks like fun and has been advertised enough that it’ll gross a decent amount this weekend.
Gregory: $22.1 million. Business casual bro-dudes who don’t need a pitcher of Sangria to find Ed Helms funny are everywhere (just look for the weekend birkenstocks or short-sleeve printed button-up), which means box-office numbers.
Kevin: $8.7 million. Sounds like fun but think it’ll be passed over beyond those attracted to a good high concept jape.
Dominic: $19 million. I have a good feeling about this…
Race 3
Theatre count: 315 (Moderate)
Studio: Yash Raj
Genre: Indian Action Thriller
Dir: Remo D’Souza
Star: Anil Kapoor, Salman Khan, Jacqueline Fernandez
Rating: Unrated
RT score: N/A (No reviews at time of press)
Synopsis: Revolves around a family that deals in borderline crime; ruthless and vindictive to its core. (That’s all IMDb will tell me.)
Other info: Third instalment in the Race series and the first one receiving a theatrical release in the USA. Distributor Yash Raj has been working quite hard in recent years to increase Indian film’s exposure in the US, giving special one weekend event releases to many films like this with decent results. Tiger Zinda Hai in 299 theatres ($1,787,108 in December 2017), Jab Harry Met Sejal in 280 theatres ($1,284,740 in August 2017), Tubelight in 338 theatres ($930,058 in June 2017). Their most successful opening was Dhoom 3 in December 2013 ($3,423,508 from 239 theatres). There were rumblings that this was going to open properly Wide prior to this week, but those plans appear to have changed.
Callum: $1,587,200. Total guess based on Yash Raj’s 2017 releases. I really need to try more Indian movies.
Caleb: $1,133,275. Haven’t heard of this one, but as it’s a third instalment and the first one with a US release, let’s hope for a good weekend.
Gregory: $753,000. It’s the third in a trilogy that has seen relatively big success overseas, so I’m pretty confident that fans will turn out for its limited release.
Kevin: $2,100,000. Bollywood/ Nollywood is a complete blind spot for me so I have no idea. This is a complete stab in the dark.
Dominic: $800,000. Didn’t even know there was a 1 or 2.
Total
Callum: $180,987,200. Meanwhile, we Brits get Super Troopers 2 this weekend. That’s a fair trade, right?
Caleb: $177,883,275. Here we go! Summer is in full swing! Between Incredibles 2 this weekend and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom next weekend, this summer’s box office will be huge, and much better than last.
Gregory: $120,533,000.
Kevin: $118,000,000.
Dominic: $131,800,000.
Think you can best this panel of super predicting giants? Why not drop your own predictions in the comments or via one of our social medias? We’ll be back next week with the Week 4 results and dinosaurs!