Welcome back once more to the Box Office Premiership! It’s like Fantasy Football but for the opening weekends of movies and just as sad! We have yet another One-Film Week this time as we approach the half-way mark of our (and the Summer Movie) Season, but, oh boy, what a film! That last proclamation was less a statement of quality about the film and more acknowledgement that the entire non-Disney arm of Hollywood is praying for it to be BIG, cos otherwise it’s gonna be a long and very painful Summer otherwise. But before we try and decipher just how many people frickin’ love dinosaurs, we’ve got to find out how many of them love the Not-Fantastic 4! Spoilers: it’s a lot.
(If you need reminding of how scoring works out, along with all the other minutia of the Premiership in general, then follow this link to go back to Week 1 where we dumped all of the info! And if you want a refresher of everybody’s predictions, not just each round’s winners, then follow this link for Week 4!)
Week 4 Results
Superfly (5 day weekend): $8,411,317. Well, I guess we were far too optimistic about Superfly 2018 getting a 2-day head start – that 5-day total is only $2.1 million higher than its standard weekend total, which is honestly pathetic. As seems to be his thing at this point, Gregory Mucci wins by default, betting the lowest out of all of us with $9.3 million, scoring yet another (1) point and making up for getting the next category completely wrong!
Incredibles II: $180 million. That’s a bigger opening weekend than even Captain America: Civil War, folks! Guess the big lessons to take away here are “never count Pixar out” and “00s nostalgia is already here which surely means a Nu-Metal revival is on its way and OH GOD NO.” In a reverse of Superfly, our winner here is the quietly dominant Caleb Burnett by virtue of betting highest, $153 million. 1 point!
Tag: $14.6 million. Better than the studio’s estimates, apparently, but still. Comedies just aren’t fully taking off this year, it seems, or maybe we all just have unreasonable expectations from the few times a juggernaut blindsides out of nowhere. This was a super-tight category, the difference coming down to just $.25 million, but in the end it was I (Callum Petch) who eeked out a win with the guess of $16.1 million. 1 point.
Race 3: $1,628,000. I am not even going to pretend that I didn’t somehow fluke this (Callum with $1,587,200). Let’s instead point out the fact that this film very nearly beat out a biopic about mobster John Gotti starring John Travolta and despite the fact that it played on nearly 200 screens less! I mean, yeah, Gotti is supposedly legendarily trash, but I think this is still something! Anyway, I (Callum) get 1 point.
Total: $204,669,317. You might think, because he was closest on the BIG film this week that Caleb won out here, but you would be mistaken! Indeed, because he low-balled Tag a little too much, his Total came in $3 million under my own. Such is the way the game is played. My (Callum) total of $180,987,200 gains me my third point (1 point) of the week!
And now, our weekly check-in with that thar there leaderboard!
Leaderboard (after Week 4 of 11)
1) Callum Petch (8 points)
2) Caleb Burnett (5 points)
3) Gregory Mucci (4 points)
4) Kevin Ibbotson-Wight (2 points)
5=) Tony Black & Owen Hughes (1 point)
6) Dominic Hastings (0 points)
And away they go on the way-out Wacky Races! It’s Week 5!
(All information correct at time of going to press.)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Theatre count: 4,450 (Wide)
Genre: Sci-Fi Action
Dir: J. A. Bayona
Star: Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, lots of dinosaurs
RT score: 54% (Rotten)
Synopsis: Three years after the events of Jurassic World, Claire and Owen are sent back to the overrun island of Isla Nublar in order to rescue some dinosaurs from the island’s active volcano at the behest of wealthy benefactors. They do not stay there, this movie is fucking insane.
Other info: Has already been available in almost all foreign territories for the past fortnight, grossing $400 million which is already more than Jurassic Park III made worldwide in its entire run. Jurassic World opened with a record-breaking $208.8 million in 2015; Fallen Kingdom will probably not match that. Previous Jurassic Park opening adjusted for inflation: Park opened to $81.8 million ($47 million in 1993), Lost World opened to $113 million ($72.1 million in 1997), Park III opened to $72.1 million ($50.7 million in 2001). Incredibles II courts a very similar audience and earned an A+ Cinemascore last weekend.
Owen: $80 million. A hero called Owen? It’ll never work! Not twice, anyway. Whilst the original inexplicably broke all kinds of records, I doubt this will come anywhere near it. True story: I really did not like Jurassic World at all and upon standing to leave the cinema after the credits started rolling, I was about to say to my wife that the movie sucked, before a seven(ish?) year old in the row next to me proclaimed that Jurassic World “is the best movie ever”! So what do I know?
Callum: $127.2 million. Not as sceptical as Owen, but not as optimistic as most Box Office forcasters either. People f*cking love dinosaurs, it’s why the first JW did so well, but it’s also only been 3 years between instalments, compared to the 14 of last time. Also, it’s been out overseas for two weeks already and Incredibles II tore the roof off last week. Now watch this effortlessly make $2 billion. Have I mentioned that this film is FUCKING INSANE yet?
Dominic: $110 million. Life, erm, finds a way.
Gregory: $148 million. Default win.
Caleb: $153 million. Life will find a way.
Theatre count: 3 (Limited)
Dir: The Zellner Brothers (David and Nathan)
Star: Robert Pattinson, Mia Wasikowska
RT score: 77% (Fresh)
Synopsis: Samuel Alabaster, an affluent pioneer, traverses the American frontier in order to marry the love of his life, Penelope. Things get complicated.
Other info: Premiered at this year’s Sundance to a healthy reception. The Zellners’ last film was Kumiko: The Treasure Hunter ($34,114 from 4 theatres in 2015). Robert Pattinson’s last three limited release openings: Good Time ($125,101 from 4 theatres in 2017), The Lost City of Z ($110,175 from 4 theatres in 2017), The Rover ($69,302 from 5 screens in 2014). This probably won’t come close to any of those openings, but stranger things have happened and Kumiko was really enjoyable.
Owen: $30,000. A modern Western doing well on its theatrical run? That’ll be the day!
Callum: $24,600. I had not heard of this until Wednesday, but it looks fun! Kumiko was good, so I’ve basically gone for 3/4 of that to reflect the one less screen.
Dominic: $30,000. Westerns are still a thing?
Gregory: $17,000. Default win.
Caleb: $22,500. No idea what this is.
Theatre count: 5 (Limited)
Studio: Sony Classics
Dir: Shana Feste
Star: Vera Farmiga, Christopher Plummer, Lewis MacDougall
RT score: 50% (Rotten)
Synopsis: Laura, along with her teenaged son Henry, is forced to drive her (unbeknownst to her) pot-dealing father cross-country to her sister’s house after he is kicked out of a retirement home.
Other info: Premiered at this year’s South by Southwest. Writer-director Shana Feste’s previous opening weekends: Endless Love ($13.3 million from 2,896 screens in 2014), Country Strong ($30,452 from 2 screens in 2010), The Greatest ($33,616 from 8 screens in 2010). One of the film’s co-stars, Peter Fonda, got in trouble for tweeting out condemnation about Trump’s child-separation border control policies… by saying (in a since-deleted tweet) that Trump’s youngest son should be ripped from him and “put in a cage with paedophiles.” I… really have no response to that.
Owen: $40,000. I would rather eat my own foot off than watch this based on the synopsis. I reckon so too would America.
Callum: $11,985. Bad reviews sink quirky Indie Dramedies (it hasn’t been that long since How to Talk to Girls at Parties). I’d say this is the most insufferable looking film I’ve seen a trailer for all week, but that Welcome To Marwen trailer made me ashamed to enjoy films in general. *shudders*
Dominic: $25,000. Looks awful, but it features a nice cast.
Gregory: $23,000. Default.
Caleb: $9,500. Iffy reviews might sink this one.
Theatre count: ? (Limited)
Studio: Oscilloscope Pictures
Dir: Eugene Jarecki
RT score: 75% (Fresh)
Synopsis: 40 years after the death of Elvis Presley, documentarian Eugene Jarecki travels across America in The King’s 1963 Rolls Royce, tracing the icon’s rise and fall, and its parallels with the death of the American Dream and the rise of Trump’s America.
Other info: Initially premiered at the 2017 Cannes Film Festival, then re-premiered at this year’s Sundance. Jarecki has previously directed acclaimed documentaries Why We Fight (2005, about the military-industrial complex), The Trials of Henry Kissinger (2002, examining Kissinger’s alleged war crimes during his time working under Presidents Nixon and Ford), and The House I Live In (2012, about the War on Drugs). In the past 12 months, only 4 of Oscilloscope’s 14 releases have broken the $10,000 mark opening weekend – Polina ($12,588 in August), The Road Movie ($17,175 in January), Sollers Point ($10,618 in May), Summer 1993 ($21,307 also in May).
Owen: tuppence. (ED NOTE: because tuppence is not an acknowledged legal currency in America in 2018, I have converted it into USD and ran it through inflation from 1964, the year Mary Poppins was released, to a usable bet of $0.32.) Whilst I’m sure there’s an audience for a limited release Elvis documentary, there probably isn’t one big enough to breach the $5k box office mark.
Callum: $5,001. Let’s see if Owen’s proclamation comes true or not.
Dominic: $6,000. Sounds very TV-movie if I’m honest.
Gregory: $1,200,000. See prior predictions.
Caleb: $33,000. Could draw some interest.
Owen: $80,070,000.32. Need to get back in the game this week!
Callum: $127,241,586. Boy, I understand why they happen, but do Event Weeks like this ever bore me.
Caleb: $153,065,000. Fun weekend ahead!
Can you best this line-up of chuckleheads who don’t even know half the films they’re betting on (and that includes the Premiership’s own commissioner)? Why not share your predictions in the comments or on our various socials? We’ll be back next week with the results and the official crossing of the halfway mark!